College Football Playoff Preview – 12/20/24

by | Dec 20, 2024 | news

HOUSTON – Postseason football has arrived, and in the first-ever 12-team playoff, all 12 teams are led by coaches who were recently named to the American Heart Association Paul “Bear” Bryant Awards Coach of the Year Watch List.

The first games in the playoff bracket begin this weekend, with four games to be played Friday and Saturday to set the quarterfinal matchups against the top four teams in the College Football Playoff rankings.

The first game kicks off Friday night, as seventh-seeded Notre Dame plays host to 10th-seeded Indiana. The winner of that game will advance to face second-seeded Georgia in the Allstate Sugar Bowl on January 1.

Saturday will feature three games, starting with a matinee between sixth-seeded Penn State and 11th-seeded SMU in State College. The winner of that game advances to the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 31 to face third-seeded Boise State.

Fifth-seeded Texas plays host to 12th-seeded Clemson in the midday game, with the winner of that game advancing to play fourth-seeded Arizona State in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on New Years’ Day.

The final game this weekend will feature eighth-seeded Ohio State playing host to Tennessee, with the winner advancing to the Rose Bowl for a New Years Day matchup against top-seeded Oregon.

Indiana (11-1) at Notre Dame (11-1)

Curt Cignetti has led the Hoosiers through a Cinderella campaign in his first season in Bloomington, as Indiana posted a program-best 11-1 record – the first double-digit win total in program history – after putting an exclamation point on the regular season with a 66-0 win over Purdue on Nov. 30. However, make no mistake about it – there are no delicate glass slippers in play for the Hoosiers, who have used blunt force to redefine the expectations around the program. Indiana has racked up five games with 500 yards or more of total offense this year – second-most in program history – and has set new program standards in 40-point games in a season with eight, games with fewer than 100 yards rushing allowed with eight, and games with fewer than 300 yards of total offense allowed with seven.

The Hoosiers have a battle ahead of them, as Marcus Freeman’s Notre Dame squad has put its early-season loss to Northern Illinois far in its rear-view mirror, entering the playoff on a ten-game winning streak. While the Fighting Irish have put up some impressive numbers on the offensive side of the ball, it has been the defense that has unquestionably established itself as one of the top defensive units in the country. Notre Dame finished the regular season ranked first in team passing efficiency defense (94.10), first in turnovers gained (28), first in defensive touchdowns (6), third in scoring defense (13.6), fourth in passing yards allowed (157.9), fourth in interceptions (17), seventh in fumbles recovered (11), ninth in red-zone defense (0.733), 10th in total defense (296.8) and 10th in first downs defense (197).

Friday night’s game – the first ever game for the Fighting Irish inside Notre Dame Stadium on a Friday – will be the 30th all-time meeting between the two programs, with Notre Dame holding a 23-5-1 advantage all-time. Indiana has not beaten Notre Dame since 1950, and the last time the two teams met was on Sept. 7, 1991, a 49-27 Notre Dame win, in a game that was coincidentally the first game of Notre Dame’s partnership with NBC. The Hoosiers will seek to do something that they have done only once in program history – and not since 1906 – win a game in South Bend.

Both teams should be prepared for a chilly evening in South Bend – kickoff temperature is projected to be 29 degrees with a northerly wind. That cold weather should not affect Notre Dame’s strategy on offense – the nation’s fourth-leading rushing attack has put up 224.8 yards on the ground per game this season. Standing across the line of scrimmage, however, is the nation’s top run defense unit – as again, the Hoosiers have only surrendered 70.8 yards per game. The matchup between Notre Dame’s elite ground game and Indiana’s punishing rush defense will be the key to deciding which team advances to face Georgia next week.

SMU (11-2) at Penn State (11-2)

Rhett Lashlee leads eleventh-seeded SMU into Saturday’s matchup against Penn State in State College after earning an at-large selection to the College Football Playoff. The Mustangs bring a 10-game road winning streak into the matchup – the second-longest streak (only behind Texas) in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The ascending Mustang program – same pony, new express – has put up a perfect 16-0 record in conference play (in two different conferences) over the last two years, falling to Clemson in the ACC Championship on a 56-yard field goal as time expired. The 8-0 mark in ACC play this season is a first for a team that made the jump into a Power 4/5 conference from a Group of Five in their first season since 1978.

Meanwhile, James Franklin has led the Nittany Lions to a tremendous season, earning an at-large selection to the College Football Playoff after a 45-37 loss to top-seeded Oregon in the Big Ten championship game. Penn State reached the 11-win plateau for the 20th time in program history and marked the 11th time in program history that mark was reached during the regular season. The Nittany Lions finished in the top 12 of the CFP rankings for the seventh time and are tied for fourth-most among FBS teams.

Saturday’s game marks the third all-time meeting between Penn State and SMU, and the second time the two teams have met in the postseason. The two teams tied 13-13 in the 1948 Cotton Bowl, and the last time the two teams met was in the 1978 season – 26-21 Penn State win.

Saturday’s game features two of the top run defenses in the country. Anchored by consensus All-America defensive end Abdul Carter, the Nittany Lions have allowed just 103.6 yards per game on the ground – ranking ninth nationally. Meanwhile, SMU’s run defense ranks fourth with only 93.4 yards per game allowed. Key to the SMU defensive effort is its ability to force turnovers – SMU ranks 26th nationally with 21 turnovers gained and ranks fifth with four defensive touchdowns. Those turnovers are accountable for 72 points this year – 14 percent of SMU’s sixth-in-the-nation 38.5 points per game.

However, with a +5 turnover margin, Penn State has had success taking care of the football this year. Saturday’s kickoff temperature is projected to be 26 degrees under partly cloudy skies, with a wind chill of 14 degrees. While Kevin Jennings has thrown for over 3,000 yards this year with 22 touchdowns against eight INTs, it may be Doak Walker Award semifinalist Brashard Smith who is the key to the Mustangs’ fortunes this weekend. Smith ranks eighth nationally in all-purpose yards with 139.54 and is 11th in total touchdowns, and he sits just 29 yards shy of breaking SMU’s single-season all-purpose yards record. He has 217 carries for 1,270 rushing yards, and has found the end zone 14 times. Across the field, the Penn State duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kayrton Allen have provided quite the one-two punch running the ball, combining for 1,660 rushing yards and 13 scores. However, the play of the nation’s top tight end, Tyler Warren, could be key. The John Mackey Award winner and first team All-America selection ranks first among FBS tight ends with 1,062 receiving yards, 81.7 yards per game, and 12.1 yards per catch.

Whichever team can establish a rhythm offensively facing stout defensive opposition will be in a good position to advance to the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl next weekend for a matchup against third-seeded Boise State.

Clemson (10-3) at Texas (11-2)

No active FBS coach has qualified for as many appearances in the College Football Playoff as Dabo Swinney. The Clemson boss punched the ticket to the postseason for the seventh time with a 34-31 win over SMU in the ACC title game back on Dec. 7. Only Nick Saban has more CFP appearances than Swinney, and with a win, Swinney will win his seventh CFP game to tie Saban’s mark. For the 13th time in the last 14 years, Clemson has won 10 or more games, and for the 10th time in program history, the Tigers recorded a perfect road record in true road games. Clemson is one of eight FBS teams – six of whom are participants in the CFP – to post a perfect road record this year.

Keeping that perfect record intact will be a challenge against Steve Sarkisian and the Texas Longhorns, who earned an at-large berth after falling 22-19 in overtime to Georgia in the SEC Championship. It is the Bulldogs who have put the only two blemishes on the Longhorns’ schedule this year, a schedule that was filled with bowl-eligible opponents. Texas and Syracuse led the nation with eight wins over bowl-eligible opposition.

Saturday’s matchup marks the first-ever meeting between Texas and Clemson – and also marks the first time that Texas has squared off against an ACC team since 2002. Both teams do have one opponent in common – the aforementioned Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia opened the season with a 34-3 win over Clemson and boasts a 3-0 record against the two teams in this game.

While the two teams have never met on the gridiron, the same can not be said for the two quarterbacks, as Texas’ Quinn Ewers and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik squared off in the Texas Class 6A state title game in 2021. It was Klubnik who emerged victorious that day, leading his Austin Westlake squad to a 52-34 win over Ewers’ Southlake Carroll squad.

The game also features a pair of emerging young stars on defense – Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons (12.5) and Clemson linebacker Sammy Brown (10.3) rank first and second nationally, respectively, in tackles for loss by freshmen this season.

While both offenses have been prolific – Texas averages 445.4 yards per game to rank 18th while Clemson averages 454.9 yards to rank 12th, the Longhorns’ defense has allowed just 249.5 yards per game – ranking third nationally, and just 12.5 points, ranking second nationally. The two teams’ defensive effort will be the key to the game, and it may hinge on this statistic – Clemson has forced 21 fumbles and has recovered 10 of those, helping the Tigers rack up 93 points off turnovers. Those 93 points represent over 20 percent of Clemson’s points this season. Texas has forced 22 fumbles, recovering 9, helping the Longhorns score 93 points off turnovers – over 21 percent of the Longhorns’ scoring output. However, it is Clemson who has the decided advantage on keeping the ball – fumbling 15 times and losing three to Texas’ 20 fumbles with 11 lost possessions. Clemson’s ability to control its own offensive possession against a stout Texas defense could be the key to determining which team advances to play Arizona State in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.

Tennessee (10-2) at Ohio State (10-2)

Coach Josh Heupel captured an at-large bid and brings his ninth-seeded Volunteers into Columbus for an opening-round showdown with Ohio State. The 2024 season was a banner campaign for the Vols, who won ten regular-season games for the second time in three years. Tennessee overachieved its preseason expectations – the Vols were picked seventh in the Southeastern Conference media day preseason poll. The historic season for the Volunteers placed them tied for second in the SEC and makes the Vols the fifth program all-time to make a CFP appearance as a member of the SEC, joining Alabama (8), Georgia (4), LSU (1), and Texas (1). Oklahoma’s four appearances came as a member of the Big 12, and Texas’ 2023 berth was as a member of the Big 12.

Ryan Day will lead his Buckeyes into Saturday’s matchup as Ohio State looks to rebound from a regular season-ending loss to the Michigan Wolverines. This will be the first football game played inside Ohio Stadium in the month of December and is the fourth appearance in the College Football Playoff in six years. No other school has been to four of the last six. In reaching the 10-win plateau, Ohio State posted its 31st 10-win season in program history, with Day leading the Buckeyes to five of those in his six seasons leading the program.

Saturday’s matchup will be the second meeting all-time between the two schools. Tennessee came out victorious in the first meeting – Peyton Manning and Jay Graham led the Vols to a 20-14 win in the Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando following the 1995 regular season.

For the first time since the founding of the Big Ten Conference in 1896, the University of Tennessee will play a true road game against a current Big Ten member. The Vols’ other matchups came either at home, in bowl games, or in neutral site games.

The two teams boast two of the nation’s top scoring defenses. Ohio State has surrendered a meager 10.9 points per game, while Tennessee sits in fourth allowing just 13.9 points per game. Redshirt senior defensive back Will Brooks is a Burlsworth Trophy semifinalist, sophomore defensive back Jermod McCoy earned all-SEC First Team and all-America second team honors en route to being named a semifinalist for the Jim Thorpe Award, while senior linebacker Keenan Pili is a Campbell Trophy semifinalist and first team all-SEC selection James Pearce is a semifinalist for the Chuck Bednarik, Lombardi, and Walter Camp Player of the Year awards. That defensive unit held 10 of 12 opponents to under 20 points this season.

The Vols will have their work cut out for them with a Buckeyes squad that has been led by the accurate passing of Will Howard, who ranks fourth nationally in completion percentage and has tossed 27 touchdown passes. He has several outstanding targets to choose from – Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith, and Carnell Tate have all caught 40 or more passes, while on the ground running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins have combined for 1,556 yards and 14 scores. The challenge for the Buckeyes will come up front, however, as two senior starters are lost for the season; left tackle Josh Simmons was injured against Oregon and consensus all-America pick and Rimington Trophy recipient Seth McLaughlin was lost for the year during the Indiana game.

On the other side of the ball, the Ohio State defense has been notoriously stingy as coach Jim Knowles’ unit has not given many teams the opportunity to get into an offensive rhythm. Over the second half of the season, the Buckeyes allowed just five total touchdowns – with none of them coming via the past. Linebackers Sonny Styles and Cody Simon lead the Buckeyes in tackles, with all-America selection Caleb Downs and all-Big Ten pick Lathan Ransom right behind.

Volunteers quarterback Nico Iamaleava has had an outstanding redshirt freshman campaign and has been incredibly accurate over the last five games – owning an 11:1 touchdown to interception ratio in that period, completing 58.4 percent of his passes. Yet the X-factor on what figures to be a chilly night in Columbus – the kickoff temperature is projected to be 28 degrees with a wind chill of 19 – could well be junior running back Dylan Sampson. The SEC’s Offensive Player of the Year, SEC Player of the Year, second team all-America selection, and semifinalist for both the Maxwell and Doak Walker awards, Sampson has spent the season etching his name in the Vols’ record book. His 22 touchdowns and 1,485 rushing yards this season are program records, while he finds himself within striking distance of the school records for season and career 100-yard rushing games and career rushing touchdowns. Sampson has scored 22 of Tennessee’s 53 offensive touchdowns (41.5 percent) – and that percentage jumped to 52.2 percent in Southeastern Conference play. The Vols’ offensive line has been anchored by senior center Cooper Mays. The first team all-America selection and Rimington Trophy finalist, Mays has not allowed a sack in 26 consecutive games.

The winner of Saturday’s game will go on to face top-seeded Oregon in the Rose Bowl Game on New Year’s Day. Which team advances could well hinge on the ability of Tennessee’s stellar run game to do something no team has been able to do in the second half of the season – establish a rhythm against the nation’s top defense.

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